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Lindy Effect and Linea: Interesting article

Discussion in 'Fiat India News' started by vinit, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. vinit

    vinit Amatore

    Messages:
    182
    Mumbai
    Linea 1.3
    Hi Friends,

    Just came to know about this article on Livemint.com about the Lindy Effect and Fiat Linea. This is not a technical article but an interesting one and it puts the theory of the Lindy Effect as "THE OLDER A THING IS, THE BETTER THE CHANCE OF ITS SURVIVAL". The author is wondering whether to sell his 4 year old Linea and go for Maruti Breeza

    http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/ne...he-chance-of-its-survival/1.0.1077264680.html

    The excerpt from the article

    "The answer lies in a problem called the “Lindy Effect”, an idea first posited by Benoit Mandelbrot, a French and American mathematician of Polish origin. The controversial and audacious Nassim Nicholas Taleb put this theory in a way a layman may understand in his best-selling Antifragile: “If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for another 40 years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not ‘aging’ like persons, but ‘aging’ in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!”

    So friends, stick to our very own Fiats. Old is indeed Gold. :)
  2. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    Messages:
    2,444
    delhi ncr
    @vinit

    Taleb has become dubiously excessive these days (AntiFragile) but your post of a post is great!

    Beauteous and robust though the Linea is, the palio and esp the punto are the truly LongLive! or rather eternal designs(+engineering), imo.

    The greatest and most urgent zindabad, though, should be for the Fiat 1100/padmini etc, now on the very verge of extinction (the last few of the Mumbai kaali-peeli-Fiat aabaadi hardly get customers anymore, the santro being preferred, apparently from what cabbies in bombay say). Robustness, much-loved-ness, driver and passenger friendliness, that engine-note, those 'lines', inexpensiveness etc have not prevented its largely unmourned death, EVEN as Mumbai/Bombay/Bambai signature-cabs.

    Lindy effect my ass. Maybe the effect does not work in the amnesiac, na-hosh-na-thikana new indian car baazar culture?? Maybe not for Fiat as a brand.... :dead: But 1 additional year is ALL it takes for that to take surprising effect, ya? :playful: i.e., The endlessly awaited new launches in 2017!:hilarious:
  3. zam123

    zam123 Novizio

    Messages:
    47
    bangalore
    Avventura 1.3 90 HP
    Dear friends,

    The theory is perfectly valid , but you see india is an exception.

    only in india , many well established theories fail.

    Like they say , it happens only in india.
  4. kinetic

    kinetic Novizio

    Messages:
    31
    mh
    Retro / Classic FIAT
    Thoughtfully written article. At present I am going through the same "effect" mentioned here. My 1.9 Fiat Petra is 11 years old and still going strong. Very reliable and serving well. So taut that it can put some new cars to shame. It asks for nothing special other than regular servicing. Only simple and essential electronics as compared to electronic wizardry of modern cars which require a CT Brain every now and then. Excellent drivability right from the word "Go" (this is worth mention).

    Now coming to the above discussed "effect". I don't know why, but just because everyone around me have changed their cars atleast once, twice or even thrice since I bought the Petra has now induced the bug of new car purchase in my mind. Deep in my heart I still love the Petra as much as before. Also the brain says to hold on the car as its not asking for anything.

    Whatever written in the livemint article is ABSOLUTELY TRUE. Instead of DEPRECIATING, the car has began to APPRECIATE. But HOW? Keeping the Petra saves me a lot of money. Just the yearly insurance cover of a new car will cost me much-much more than what the Petra needs on maintenance in a whole year. Dad loves the Petra more than me and asks any specific reason for new car purchase, to which I have no logical answer. Then why did I get the urge to buy a new car? Only because everyone else around me is buying one and I don't want to look as left behind? Time to rethink!
  5. Ravi_M

    Ravi_M Regolare

    Messages:
    323
    Indore
    Indore
    Linea 1.3
    I am yet to read about this Lindy effect, but for what I gathered from these posts, and here is my comment.

    We learn about the bath-tub graph of reliability. It also applies to live-stock. Those of us, as well as machines (including cars), who cross the infant mortality period, go on to survive for the expected life-span generally (unless met with some accident). As we (and machines) age, if parts are replaced timely, we continue to live. Once we (and machines) are old, we become respectable (enviable?), though with reduced capability, and everyone starts having faith in what we say / do. It happens with institutions, companies too.
  6. vinit

    vinit Amatore

    Messages:
    182
    Mumbai
    Linea 1.3
    What the Lindy effect summarizes is, if any machine, process, concept or any such thing, has already survived for a considerable amount of time, there is a much greater chance of that thing to survive more as compared to those which haven't survived. And this thought is applicable to not only just cars but any "thing", tangible or intangible, in our day-to-day life.

    So, if your car (any car, not just Fiat) has given you trouble free experience, say for the last 5 years, the chances are better that the trouble free experience will continue for another few years and vice-versa. And this is applicable to many other appliances as well such as ACs, TVs, Washing machines and what not.

    Off course, there are many if's and but's applicable in this scenario, but this is just a plain probabilistic statement which can help us decide whether to continue with that particular machine/thing or to move on.
    amitshedha likes this.
  7. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    Messages:
    2,444
    delhi ncr
    The 'effect' to be concerned about, whether + or -, wrt a car is not just the car itself (eg, @kinetic 's beautiful petra) or the firm that makes it and services it, but the 'brand'.

    i.e., in Fiat's case: there is a severe 'Lindy effect' vis-a-vis mis- and dis-trust in the brand itself, perpetuating itself on and on in time, each additional year of negativity raising the probability of longer-term negativity remaining intact or getting worse.

    I don't believe there is any such 'effect' for the car itself, no matter how excellent its robustness or reliability in the past-upto-the-present though there certainly tends to be, for us Fiat-owners, a 'Lindy effect' for our affection/respect for it. The latter has a great tendency to linger, perpetuate and perhaps even increase over-time.

    But that, as my example of the unmourned-except-by-taxi-drivers-themselves demise of the Fiat 1100/Padmini Mumbai kaali-peeli taxicabs shows, has nothing to do with the wider, public recognition (i.e., brand power) of the 'FIAT taxi'-as-a-signature-of-Bombay. The latter WILL very soon be forgotten, especially by younger Mumbaikars.

    Personally, me has no doubt and full-faith in the 'lindy effect' as far as maintaining and servicing/spares etc of Fiat cars in India, going forward indefinitely, including the Abarths and whatever is launched in 2017 onwards.

    BUT: i do greatly fear the absence of any such effect vis-a-vis the BRAND's ability to expand-in-sales (the ONLY way for it to survive, live longer, be longterm 'robust' and 'resilient' as the Taleb thesis goes, since it is an economic/commercial-entity afterall.)

    IMO: post-the-2014 facelifts, Avventura, independent dealers, several ad-campaigns etc FIAT has shown every sign of a negative Lindy Effect, vis-a-vis the question of sales-expansion. i.e., the limtations of the brand-itself are what are reproducing and perpetuating themselves, indeed making future expansion less rather than more likely.

    FIAT the brand-in-India maybe 'Anti-fragile' as Taleb defines it, a long-term and in-the-future-likelier SURVIVOR but

    it is all-too fragile in its ability or even opportunity to GROW and THRIVE beyond the hitherto very very limited circle of us Fiat car owners and lovers.

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