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End of diesel cars

Discussion in 'Non FIAT Cars and two wheelers' started by Raj_pol, Oct 10, 2015.

  1. Raj_pol

    Raj_pol Regolare

    Punto Evo 1.3
    The thread title might sound like how one of the "leading" news channels would put it. But seriously after the VW scandal and the following (see below) would it spell the beginning of the end for diesel engines. Diesel was always the more polluting of the two (petrol and diesel) and in another 6 to 10 years there will be concrete advances in alternate powered cars. Share your thoughts. Also FCA is hugely dependent on it's diesel engines.

    bharath likes this.
  2. asimpleson

    asimpleson Esperto

    Linea 1.3
    I have not gone through the link but will read the same later. Diesel cars cannot go out, since that still will also remain the backbone of transportation and also heavy machinery which cannot do without it.

    Diesels presented in market as on today are producing lesser CO2 as per one US study and overall NOx too is on its way of steady decline as diesel technology improves with time including emissions treatment systems.
    The VW scandal is purely to save costs of new power-train developments including engines and transmissions that could make it easier on the environment as governments keep pushing further with Euro 6 etc. The costs of rolling out newer solutions could also be detrimental to performance expectations of the company and the buyers it looks like.

    Edit: the report in ways states that the game has been rigged to pass most diesel vehicles, and seems like everyone knew about it but nothing could be done about the same.
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2015
  3. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    delhi ncr
    Diesels will be around for as long as petrol engines cannot INEXPENSIVELY match their higher fuel efficiency and their lower co2 emissions. EVEN with exhaust emissions and spm treatment systems, and therefore higher costs, diesels will still make a lot of economic sense for many users (from commercial and utility vehicles to high-mileage private users), since emissions and fuel efficiency standards and mandates i the west are going to lead to much more expensive petrol engines (di, twin-turbo-s, cylinder deactivation, electric superchargers, infinitely-variable and dual valve timing systems etc) too. Electrics and hybrids will remain significantly more expensive, both to make let alone to buy.

    What will happen will be deeply compressed profit margins for car firms, as their r&d and regulatory compliance costs soar further.

    Which is PRECISELY the rationale for Marchionne's advocacy of large scale consolidation of firms' r&d and manufacturing 'backends' while brands are kept alive. We'll probably see him make further moves along these lines in a few months, once the ongoing Ferrari ipo is consummated (10% stake for about 10-12 billion dollars, with about 2.5 billion going to the FCA balance sheet.) His advocacy of this has only been proven as prescient given VW's crisis (low profit margins, over spending on technology development, overmanning, too-high-cost-structure etc, let alone the scandalous cheating etc).

    FCA is much less dependent on diesels than either vw or renault or peugeot-citroen or opel, given their main application is in Fiat's vans (doblo, ducato etc), and the fact that their sales are now more in petrol/gasoline engines in the US, Canada and Brazil. Also, FCA is Europe's biggest cng-powered vehicle manufacturer, selling many more of them than any other firm's hybrid or electric sales (esp in Italy and Germany.) The twinair 2 cylinder turbopetrol is there, as is the superb t-jet 1.4 multiair, with a new generation of 3 and 4 cylinder small AND big petrol engines coming up, the first being the Alfa Giulia's 2.0 litre (twin?) turbo di engine ("Hurricane"). Their first mainstream full-on plug-in hybrid vehicle, the new Chrysler Town and Country minivan, (not counting the Fiat 500e sold only in California or the LaFerrari) will be out early 2016, and so on.

    So, they're set fair enough, but the question is at what revenue growth, and with what profit margins? Both are for now growing well, especially in N America and globally with JEEPs, but there's NO doubt Marchionne's going to be acting on all the cost-consolidation, BIG-merger talk, soon: GM? some tech-sharing deal with the VW group? with JLR-Tata? with Peugeot-Citroen? Suzuki, too?....
  4. KKAUL

    KKAUL Amatore

    Grande Punto 1.3
    totally agree with you that diesel being more polluting than petrol but it won't be wise to say that it would be there end.
    diesel was actually meant for power and due to its lower cost went into common man's hand but in
    future it would be a totally different game.
    to counter the pollution norms car manufacture would have to add several device which will make car cost considerably high and add on to that the petroleum refining companies would also require to improve their tech in order to meet car companies standard.
    when we are able to achieve all this the cost per km of diesel vehicle will be quite high then petrol engine or electric cars and then diesel car wwill be luxury and off roading will be for privileged few.
    lets see what the future has for us coz we Indians will always depend on what west has to offer us.
  5. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    delhi ncr
    With any luck the (of course very gradual, this being Indian Standard Time) end of diesels in Delhi (NCR?) has begun. The supreme court and the ngt have passed orders banning, as a first step, registration of new diesel passenger vehicles of 2litres+ and imposing a higher environmental cess on trucks entering delhi. The court says it will later look at and pass orders on what to do about extant diesel passenger vehicles already on the road.

    With any luck, and at a minimum: (a) they will mandate a penal increase in local taxes on diesel cars on purchase (b) they will mandate much-higher carbon and pollution (spm, NOx) taxes on diesel fuel (c) will insist that the central government and the PSU as well as private petroleum refining andmarketing firms start the process of BS/Euro6 grade fuel ASAP, with delhi ncr going first and fast, and (d) will acknowledge that the problem of pollution, indeed most urban problems, cannot be solved unless the number of cars on the road is permanently reduced by at least 50% (the temporary odd-even scheme is a good start), for which stiff parking, road, pollution, congestion and urban-sprawl taxes at the point of purchase AND stiff prices even for 4 -wheeler licenses-in-the-first-place are ESSENTIAL and UNAVOIDABLE, by now i.e., given the air quality, congestion and road safety emergency we are in.

    Also, all cars, diesel or petrol, older than say 4 years or with mileage greater than say 120000 kms must be banned outright, on pain of confiscation of both car and license. Hit new prospective car owners, esp diesel-walas, hard but ALSO hit old owners, who after all must 'payback' for all the subsidies at public expense (such as subsidised diesel fuel prices and such as pollution harm they've caused).

    Simultaneously: (a) very low though not zero taxation of public transport vehicles and of hybrids + EVs esp electric 2- and 3-wheelers

    (b) low taxation of cng-ised uber, ola whose numbers must however be reviewably capped in order to incentivize use of 2-wheelers and buses, the metro, etc

    (c) a simultaneous private-public expansion of bus services, including ac ones, cng and/or hybrid, preferably with BRT in parts of the city, to take full advantage of the liberated PUBLICLY-owned road and parking space currently under usurpation by car owners, a robbery by the middle and upper classes of the rest of the public's (80% of delhi-ites do NOT own a car/suv) time, space, health, safety and money.

    The high-cost car owners left will actually gain not just a civic benefit but also a selfish, consumerist one: benefits from greatly reduced congestion (something the massively and fast expanded metro lines have NOT made ANY dent in), greater road safety/lawfulness/ease of policing, greater air quality for themselves and their children. And with any luck will discover the not-minor social and civic and self-regarding-even pleasures and benefits of travelling by bike or scooter, electric rickshaw, buses and the metro (e.g., more walking: good for health. e.g., commute time saved e.g., greater safety and security.)

    CAVEAT: everyone among Delhi's car owners that i know or have met is a hypocritical, self-serving and self-indulgent whinger against these initial moves by the delhi govt, the ngt and the supreme court, with a pirate-like totally anti-civic attitude. They do not get how they are harming themselves by this attitude. They want all the priveleges of being a car owner with NONE of the correlating duties, burdens and responsibilities, since that has been the prevalent city-quality-of-life-killing, urbi-cidal 'system' all these last 15-20 years that car ownership has exploded here. Delhi ncr has more cars than the next 5 biggest cities put together, with by far the best, widest road and flyover network too. And yet, despite being the world's greenest city it is also among the most air-polluted, with the most dangerous and lawless drivers, completely out of control.
    Ravi_M likes this.
  6. Ravi_M

    Ravi_M Regolare

    Linea 1.3
    @prabhjot, I appreciate the passion and sincerity in all your posts, though haven't read them all through. I liked this one too.
    Few thoughts to share here - Many years ago, when the SUVs came on the scene, I had read criticism somewhere about the benefit wealthy people will get by using cheap diesel for their SUVs and the pollution these will create. Till then diesel was mostly used by public and goods transport vehicles and the subsidy went to mango men (and women)! The fear has benn proven true!

    Though it is not logical to simply stop all vehicles older than 10 years to come on road, it may be the only way out at least now. In other countries (EU & USA), AFAIK, vehicle is actually tested for roadworthiness and then allowed, even if it is quite old.

    I believe that it is the responsibility of every CAPABLE entity (individual, family, social groups, private firm, MNC) to contribute to reduce global warming / pollution by curtailing use of all polluting things. Even controlling generation of garbage can help in big way. I am particularly sensitive to free use of cleaning agents everywhere. We want to keep ourselves, our utensils, our clothes, our home clean - at what cost? We spoil the soil, the neighboring vacant plot, the nearby pond.

    I hope we share the same concern!
    Raj_pol, prabhjot and Himanshukumar like this.
  7. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    delhi ncr

    We are one big cacophonous 'chalti ka naam gaadi' of a public, sir! (pun intended)

    With each micro fragmented constituent having his/their own reason to insist that they are THE victims who must be given total priority. Especially, in Delhi, the elite and middle classes. NO one cares for the city, no one wants to cooperate towards collective solutions, the ONLY ones that work over time. The last thing we seem to want to do is learn from the experiences of other countries: we want to repeat all the urban stupidities for ourselves.

    "We'll see", "vekh laagen" (in panjabi), we seem to think: let the collective or urban future go any which which way, there's nothing to do but wait "to see", i.e., to endlessly defer all collective-public reckoning and deliberation and decision in the name of the urgencies of self-satisfaction and -fulfillment now. We like to live in (wannabe!) private little-utopias, such as cars and suv-s, with the wider-space that is ever-more dystopian. Fat, overweight, high-BP and high-blood-sugar but 'shiny happy' Private Vikas versus emaciated, malnourished, squalid, low-BP Public Vikas?

    Well, at least the 'matter' has been broached, at least there is SOME "calling attention of all citizens!" that has happened in delhi. in that sense, perhaps very-financially-priveleged Delhi is, for once, showing the way to say Mumbai or Chennai, etc? For that all credit to the Delhi state government. Now, i hope they don't botch-up or let the odd-even and the other measures get sabotaged, because it will be the USUAL, then: half a step forward and two full steps backwards. Since it will mean the next steps will be even-harder to undertake?

  8. SwifttoPunto

    SwifttoPunto Novizio

    Punto Evo 1.3 90 HP
    One thing that I have not understood is has the government or the court identified the major cause that led to this level of pollution. I hope they have. If they have done and saying diesel vehicles are the cause, then why cant they address the real problem, than trying to reduce the impact in the short run (that too this impact reduction measures of banning SUV registration and odd/even rule will have very minimal effect).
    Without even going into facts, by what I observe daily on roads, I can list the causes:
    1. Diesel vehicles which have crossed say 10 years: I see so many cabs and other commercial vehicles (indicas, sumos, TTs, etc) emitting so much smoke whenever they accelerate, I even some time wonder if they are really using diesel or kerosin/something else. Just during my 5 kilometers to my office daily , I come across atleast 20-25 such heavy smoking (when I say heavy, it is really heavy) commercial vehicles. Then comes buses. Not just old buses and even Volvos emit so much smoke. I think Volvo buses in Bangalore emot higher smoke than any other buses. Then Garbage trucks and garbage vehicles. I dont know how old they are but the amount of smoke they emit is really worrisome.
    2. Autos: There are some age old autos which always seems to be running on some adulterated fuels and emotting heavy smoke.

    Among private vehicles, I come across very negligible numbers (which must be say 10-12 years old) which seems to be not serviced and maintained properly, hence emit heavy smoke.

    I am sure this is the reason in Delhi also. I think cabs are very high in Delhi with old indicas, sumos, etc., and these will continue to operate even under the new measures (odd/even rule and SUV ban). If route cause is not addressed or the Govt is not ready to implement because it affects the vote bank, and then make general public suffer with these misdirected measures, then I don't know where we are heading.
    prabhjot likes this.
  9. prabhjot

    prabhjot Esperto

    delhi ncr

    Yes the auto, cab, bus and truck wala-s are all complaining big time, and so are of course the car dealers and the car manufacturers: but each of them has a reason for suggesting that EVEN if they're polluting they are also performing a public service or that they're just struggling to make a living or that nothing mustcome in the way of urban dhandaa.

    Meanwhile, those who have private diesel (or petrol) cars and esp suv-s feel that they're entitled to privacy, safety and comfort, since to use cabs or buses or the metro is an affront they claim to these "basic rights" (which of course 85 odd% other citizens do not enjoy since they DO not have and cannot have cars). Also, all shop keepers and market-associations want the right to enable 'free parking' on public land, since their clientele is precisely such people, and builders want big roads and flyovers etc so that their property developments and property values appreciate, etc etc.

    So there you have it: a coalition of the rich, the 'humble' middling AAM AADMI and some asset-less "poor" who all have good reason to sabotage ANY meaningful attempt to bring cars, fuel quality, emissions quality and traffic flow and safety and lawfulness, not to mention the rights of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists etc under some MINIMALLY rational and just/equitable collective/civic control.

    No conspiracy is needed: just the logic of "but make an exception for me/us" or "but how can great and clean and high-status me be subject to RULES?!" or " FIRST make them and those ones too comply first, what about those others, eh?, why are you singling me out" etc makes sure city authorities and politicians cannot even BEGIN to address adequately the WHOLE bunch of inter-related urban-mobility/transport issues. For the sake tomorrow rather just today.

    That is why what is being attempted in delhi is so important: it IS a breakthrough in this anti-civic log- or rather traffic-jam! For a long while it was widely held that the "Metro" as a technology was going to enable a betterment for all parties, Delhi again, as usual (because of central govt money and financial aid from the Japanese) supposedly showing the way, as it also supposedly did when all buses, cabs and auto-s were forcibly shifted to cng. Sadly, those hopes have been dashed and neither the metro here (good for other reasons) nor cng-conversions nor all the annual spending of many thousands of crores on roads, their upkeep, widening, extending, flyovering, bypassing etc etc has made ANY difference.

    Let us hope the new Delhi government, alongwith the ngt and the courts plus civic activists are able to pulloff a noticeable improvement in pollution levels, quality and quantity of proper policing, plus of course fewer cars resulting in vastly better traffic flow and reduced commuting times.

    Because IF a noticeable NET good improvement is achieved , the 'public' in Dilli (such as it is) and in other cities might cooperate more in the future in finally ensuring some sanity in our urban transport system and in its economics (something that underpins every other urban advantage/facility/affordance/public or private 'good'.)

    For once the 'netas' are actually leading rather than appearing-to while really pandering to a wide swathe of the city's 'vested interests', of which, let us face it, the 'middle class' (however defined) is a major, if not often-dominant, as in this case, member.

  10. SwifttoPunto

    SwifttoPunto Novizio

    Punto Evo 1.3 90 HP
    I certainly agree first part of your reply. Everyone is a stakeholder in this and everyone should contribute to correct it. But has that happened with these policies? No. These two policies in my view are certainly mis-directed. I dont have any reservation on banning new diesel (SUV) vehicle registration, but odd/even date policy is nothing but just to show to the court and people that some measure has been taken by the Government and now it is peoples' responsibility to make it work. Political reasons behind such decisions and targeting always middle class/lower middle class (who are not the major contributor for this situation), is something which has been happening and continues to happen. Nothing has changed. However, thinking such policy as revolutionary and planning to implement it in other places (I understand currently it is considered for Bangalore also), just shows no drastic/realistic change in right direction can happen in our country.

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